Carson Metcalf's 2009-2010 Winter Weather Outlook for Central New York - The Central New York Weather Center

It’s time once again for every Central New Yorker’s favorite season to arrive, and for me to predict what I think will happen. Winter is just around the corner, and over the last few weeks I’ve been busy compiling data and historical figures and statistics to get a clue as to what we are to expect this season.

What Was Looked At

Current El Niño and La Niña Patterns and Factors
Historical El Niño and La Niña Patterns and Factors
Historical Temperatures and Precipitation Data (1992-2009, SYR)
NWS Climate Prediction Center Model Forecasts
NWS Long-Range Temperature and Precipitation Expectancies (Graphical)
The 2010 Farmer’s Almanac

What Was Found

This year has presented me the greatest challenge I’ve ever had in predicting an upcoming winter season (and no, I don’t say that every year). Not only is there no stable El Niño or La Niña pattern in place, there are also only two years dating back to 1992 in which similar patterns to 2009 have been recorded with respect to summer weather, those being 1992 and 2004. For this winter, I’m expecting temperatures to start out average or slightly above average, and then sink into below average territory for January into February. As far as snow and other wintry precipitation are concerned, I expect this winter season to bring slightly above average regional storm-related snow and precipitation as well as above average lake-effect snow.

The Outlook

	Daily High	Daily Low	Monthly Snowfall	Notes
December 2009	35°-39°	22°-25°	30”-35”*	Slightly above average high/low temperatures, slightly above average snowfall
January 2010	28°-31°	10°-14°	40”-45”*	Slightly below average high/low temperatures, above average snowfall
February 2010	29°-32°	12°-16°	25”-30”*	Below average high/low temperatures, slightly above average snowfall

*Amounts likely to be offset by variations in lake effect snow accumulation.

Conclusion

To put all of the information presented in the table above together, here briefly are the key points of the outlook. Expect the winter to start out quite mild in December, with average to slightly above average snowfall, as I would expect some type of coastal storm to affect Central New York like we’ve seen already with back-to-back nor’easters in New England. As we progress into the new year, expect snow amounts to sharply increase and temperatures to sharply decrease. Expect lake-effect activity to be at its high-point during mid-to-late January. For February, expect lake-effect snow activity to settle down, although one more major coastal storm is likely to impact the region. Temperatures are expected to decrease further below average levels before rising at the end of the month of February as a presumed La Niña pattern will begin to take shape.

Closing and Delay Predictions

While I never make predictions as to the closure or delay of school before winter begins, as many of you know I do stay on top of these things during the season and major snowfall events. I’ve been doing this for the last six or seven years, and just last year I gave fourteen correct school predictions, and just two incorrect school predictions. To see what I’m thinking during the winter season, head to www.centralnewyorkweather.com, and click “Prediction Central” on the left menu of the homepage.

Future Updates To This Report

It is possible that with new information coming into The Central New York Weather Center, and new computer models released daily, that there could be some modifications to this outlook. Any changes will be finished and distributed by December 1, 2009.

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